Guardian

IT had been in the works for many months, but it was not an easy decision to take. There are many angles to it and if not well managed, a declaration of emergency rule could be counter- productive. That had been President Jonathan’s lot - carrying the frustrations of a supposedly shared enterprise upon his shoulders. But Nigerians hardly gave him one chance of a breathing space. Members of political opposition daily lampooned him for failing to live up to the pronouncements of the constitution, that of protecting lives and property of citizens. All the while, Boko Haram insurgents continued to pound their way all round Borno, Yobe, and Admawa on their way to taking over the Federal Capital. The audacity of the insurgency was exemplified by the hosting of their insignia of lawlessness, a flag, which indicated they had conquered segments of Borno State’s vast terrain, a property of the government of the Federal Republic.

That jolted Jonathan step up action. Since he had the luck to step in as acting president, after the demise of Umar Yar’Adua in May 2010, the Jonathan administration has had more than a fair share of insecurity challenges in the history of Nigeria.

His first baptism was the October 1, 2010 bombing at the Eagle Square, Abuja, venue of the independent day anniversary activities.

Since then, terrorists have bombed their way to the Police headquarters, Abuja, the United Nations building, Abuja, and made a mincemeat of persons who were relaxing at a spot in Mogadishu Cantonment, Abuja. On Christmas Day, 2011, terrorists went to Saint Theresa’s Catholic Church Madala, Niger State, where they killed over 40 worshippers.  It became an unending assault on the sovereignty of the country. When they are not driving vehicles loaded with explosives into public places, insurgents carry out routine raids on defenseless communities, killing scores and hundreds in southern Kaduna, Plateau, Adamawa, Gombe and other vulnerable places in the North. They carried out many deadly attacks in Kano before they returned to lay permanent siege to the entire Northeast, where life has become brutish and short for the citizens. The recent killings in Baga and Bama towns of Borno State remain the most audacious affront to the sovereignty of Nigeria. The situation challenges Jonathan’s position as the Commander in Chief of Nigeria’s Armed Forces.

Even at that, the situation on ground does not require the swash-buckle of a mindless leader, but the thorough balancing of thoughts in order to produce good overall effect on the polity. In a clime where criticism has become the regular pastime of the opposition, Jonathan needed to be careful, so that a misread of his actions does not produce negative backlash.

In the exercise of the powers conferred on him by section 305 of the Constitution, Jonathan proclaimed emergency rule in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states. The question now is whether the President acted with tact, in allowing the political structures in the states to remain, while approving more military deployments in the affected states.

In an emergency situation, there is no guarantee that any particular strategy could do the magic. Analysts have suggested that a blend of large-scale political engagement and a bit of military highhandedness could be more useful than total emergency, whereby political structures in the three states are dismantled.

Femi Falana, SAN, said emergency rule in a democracy requires tact and not the kind of ostentatious bravado that was applied in the case of Ekiti and Plateau states during the reign of former President Obasanjo.

Others think Jonathan was being economical with the truth and reality by allowing politics to take the better side of him. They say what he has done amounts to partial amnesty, which does not express the full intent of the constitution in Section 305.

Another way to look at it is the recurring faceoff between the President and the Governors’ Forum, which has now translated into a personal battle between him and the Rivers’ Governor, Rotimi Amaechi.

Early last week, the Governors Forum, sensing that an emergency in some states appeared imminent went to town to denounce the impending proclamation, with a view to scoring an advantage against Jonathan. In the fluid nature of the party system, it is difficult to know who is a real party man, apart from using the ticket of a political party to win elections. To that extent, Amaechi now enjoys support from opposition governors, who are beginning to see him as a possible convert, should the PDP continue to mismanage itself in Rivers.

But Jonathan was smarter, by not calling for a dismantling of the political structures in the states, a pronouncement that could have produced very angry reactions from the camp of opposition politicians. Borno and Yobe have remained two states that have been under the firm control of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). Adamawa is a PDP state, but highly divided and any slip by the President could cause a major upset in a state where Bamangar Tukur, national chairman of the PDP hails from. It is a dicey situation, but the president must be seen to have done something, no matter how feeble.

Anthony Sani, chieftain and spokesperson of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) thinks it was tactful of Jonathan not to have sent home political office holders in the three states. But he wonders what emergency rule will do where the use of force had failed. To him, emergency rule is the same thing as the rule of force, even though now expanded, which has not produced tangible results all this while.

Will partial emergency enjoy the administrative latitude required to deal with the tide of terrorists’ insurrection in the Northeast? Will politics at state’s level not interfere in the suaveness, speed and dexterity required to drive home emergency rule? Time will tell how the President will manage the two without one interfering and injuring the other.

That time will mature by 2015, when general elections will be ripe. This is one area Jonathan and the intelligence community should manage very skillfully. If Boko Haram is not subdued before that time, the environment may not be good enough for elections to hold in the Northeast, if not the entire North. If elections were to manageably take place, Nigerians have to worry about post-election outcome. It was not this bad in 2011, when youth corpers, who acted as ad hoc staff for INEC were brutally murdered in the Northeast.

It will also not be out of place for politicians to plot how they can make capital out of the present strife, although that has to be done with utmost concern for the peace of all. Should politicians overvalue personal gains over the sovereign wellbeing of the country, then, it will be their funeral when the bubble bursts.

Another area to look at is the outcome of the previous emergency rule declared by this government in 15 local government areas in four states, including Yobe and Borno. The other two were Plateau and Niger. That proclamation was loosely defined because they affected councils shared common borders with others that were not affected. The mercurial nature of movements and relationships hampered the effectiveness of the emergency rule. In the Plateau, crisis did not abate, as there were more killings. Matters got to a head when citizens in affected councils, particularly women, went on civil protests, asking members of the Special Task Force (STF) to go because they seemed to be of no use. They were even accused of colluding with insurgents to kill and maim.

In Yobe and Borno, the deployment of more forces to the affected councils yielded no positive result, except that Boko Haram members were more brazen. In Niger, it could be said to have recorded partial success as dastardly incidents surpassing the Madala assault have not been recorded so far.

All together, emergency rule in isolated manner could be difficult to enforce, particularly for a guerrilla or mobile group like the Boko Haram.  The Boko Haram infrastructure could be transferred anywhere, particularly along the border communities in the Northeast and Northwest. But given the costly nature of combating insecurity, government could not have declared emergency rule all over the North. Even where the resources are available, the political climate in the country does not permit such grandiose proclamation.

That leaves the President and Nigerians with only one option: Luck. If good luck shines on the polity, this latest adventure could weaken the capacity of the insurgents to mobilise and regroup in other parts of the North.

Perhaps, that is when calls for amnesty would make real sense. Right now, it doesn’t, because you cannot expect to summon Boko Haram members for meaningful talks, when you are at the same time smoking them out. This time of emergency can be used by the amnesty committee to do its ground-works and secretarial duties, pending when normalcy returns.