World population to top nine billion by 2050
WORLD population is projected to reach seven billion early in 2012, up from the current 6.8 billion, and surpass nine billion people by 2050, reveals the 2008 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections.
In July 2009, the world population will reach 6.8 billion, 313 million more than in 2005 or a gain of 78 million persons yearly. Assuming that fertility levels continue to decline, the world population is expected to reach 9.1 billion in 2050 and to be increasing by about 33 million persons yearly at that time, according to the medium variant.
Most of the additional 2.3 billion people will enlarge the population of developing countries, which is projected to rise from 5.6 billion in 2009 to 7.9 billion in 2050, and will be distributed among the population aged 15-59 (1.2 billion) and 60 or over (1.1 billion) because the number of children under age 15 in developing countries will decrease.
In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to change minimally, passing from 1.23 billion to 1.28 billion, and would have declined to 1.15 billion were it not for the projected net migration from developing to developed countries, which is projected to average_2.4 million persons annually from 2009 to 2050.
The results of the 2008 Revision incorporate the findings of the most recent national population censuses and of numerous specialised population surveys carried out around the world. The 2008 Revision provides the demographic data and indicators to assess trends at the global, regional and national levels and to calculate many other key indicators commonly used by the United Nations system.
Another recent UN report, World Population Policies 2007, says that many governments continue to be concerned about the consequences of excessive population growth for economic growth and sustainable development.
High population growth remains a salient concern in the developing world. Half of the developing countries viewed their population growth as too high in 2007 although rates of population growth in developing countries continue to decline, from an average annual rate of 2.4 per cent in 1970-1975 to 1.4 per cent in 2000-2005.
Among the 50 least developed countries, the percentage of countries that viewed population growth as too high rose from 50 per cent in 1986 to 78 per cent in 2007. Many developing countries have realized the importance of reducing high rates of population growth in order to ease mounting pressure on renewable and non-renewable resources, combat climate change, prevent food insufficiency and provide decent employment and basic social services to all their people.
Africa is the region with the highest percentage of countries viewing population growth as too high: 66 per cent of countries did so in 2007, up from 35 per cent in 1976. In Asia, which has experienced substantial declines in fertility, 45 per cent of countries viewed population growth as too high.
Meanwhile, strong evidence exists showing that demographic change is closely associated with greenhouse gas emissions, and that population dynamics will play a key role in attempts to mitigate and adapt to the effects of changes in the climate system in the future, a new study has found.
Population Action International (PAI) - an independent U.S.-based policy advocacy group - says it is clear that analysing changes in the composition of various populations is very important for understanding future needs and potential for mitigating carbon emissions and climate change. These population changes include age composition, the distribution of people in urban and rural areas, and household size.
The analysis presented by PAI argues that by including only population size as the demographic variable in climate models, the contribution of "population" to climate change has been underestimated.
Similarly, understanding demographic trends, including fertility, population growth, urbanization, migration from environmentally depleted areas, and growing population density in marginal and vulnerable areas, is also crucial for the world to adapt to and cope with the adverse impacts of current and projected climate change.
Summarising these findings, PAI says: "Sir Nicholas Stern (2006) states that climate change threatens to cause the greatest and widest ranging market failure ever seen. He warns that one per cent of global GDP must be invested in order to mitigate climate change, and that failure to do so could risk a recession worth up to 20 per cent of global GDP.
"Moreover, the adverse effects of climate change cannot be bound within any administrative boundaries. Climate change poses a grave challenge for the whole world and has wide ranging implications for human well-being as well as for security, including the risk of armed conflict over resources and large-scale migrations of population within nations and across national borders. The IPCC estimates that 150 million environmental refugees will exist in 2050, due mainly to the effects of coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and agricultural disruption.
"A range of development policies are urgently needed to address this situation, including renewed commitment to meeting the globally agreed Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Investments in family planning and reproductive health, girls education, economic opportunities and empowering of women, and in youth could help least developed and developing countries to speed up their demographic transition, enabling them to achieve demographic windows of opportunity which may contribute to economic growth and a greater capacity to cope with climate change impacts.
"Population dynamics should not continue to be ignored in climate change adaptation strategies, and effective measures must meet the needs of the world's most vulnerable citizens, including the needs of women.
"Combating climate change calls for the spirit of environmental stewardship and international cooperation on a range of emissions reduction and adaptation approaches. These approaches will benefit from greater attention to population dynamics, including growth, household structure, urbanization and aging.
"Population policies and programmes that promote universal access to voluntary contraception, when linked with broader efforts to address a range of demographic factors and meet development and poverty reduction objectives, such as the MDGs, will help lead to a more sustainable demographic future that will play a crucial role in climate change mitigation and adaptation."
