Nigeria and the Copenhagen climate summit
By Luke Onyekakeyah
THE months leading to the United Nations Climate Change summit in Copenhagen, Denmark in December 2009 have been marked by a flurry of activities in different parts of the world. Meetings are being held at various levels - national, sub-national and even civil society level. Countries and regions are making assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on their economies and peoples. Environmental scientists, universities and independent bodies are engrossed in predictive research to determine the likely impacts of a global changed climate. The aim of the pre-summit meetings and consultations with their underpinning scientific evidence is to get a better understanding of the problem in order for the concerned entities to take a best interest position on the problem at the global level.
As it were, no serious country is sitting back and folding arms and just waiting to attend the summit for the sake of it. Responsive governments are making serious preparations ahead of the meeting to present a clear-cut position of their countries. Such countries are going there not to be mere attendees but to stake their country's position and protect their national economic interest. We are aware of the position of the United States, for instance, since the Kyoto Protocol (COP-3) was negotiated in December 1997. While the US is not opposed to measures that would curb harmful anthropogenic emissions into the atmosphere, she has almost consistently refused to yield any ground that would make her economy and peoples lifestyle suffer. The US has consistently demanded that emerging economies like China and India, among others should take equal measures to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Many other countries have also made their positions known and are going to Copenhagen to protect their national interest. Such countries are basing their argument on the economic imperatives their countries.
Without doubt, climate change has become a topical issue the world over. Among other global issues, climate change is going to remain a dominant issue on the global arena in the foreseeable future. This is the truth of the matter so long as the general understanding is that the earth is warming up with a possibility of a swing in the global climate with disastrous socio-economic and environmental consequences. Even if the issue turns out to be a hoax as some people are already claiming on the Internet saying that the earth is rather cooling and not warming (?!), that won't reduce the import of any positive measures taken by any country to redress its deleterious actions that affect the climate.
The question to ask is what Nigeria's position is on the climate change issue? Given the country's embarrassing underdevelopment situation amid abundant human and natural resources, what are her commitments on the climate change issue? How does the country intend to exploit her abundant fossil fuel resources that may have little or no relevance in the years ahead as the developed world pursues mechanisms that would provide clean energy in place of oil? What plan is the country putting down that would enable her adjust to the emerging trend towards green economy?
I am particularly concerned about what the fate of the Nigerian economy in the determined effort of America and the other developed Western economies to dislodge oil as the primary source of energy in the near future. Is Nigeria conscious of this reality? What is the country thinking about it? What about the woeful power supply situation? What energy mix is the country working on to provide reliable energy for economic development? Is the country putting its possibilities and alternatives together? These are the issues that should form the crux of the country's position at the UN summit. If the country doesn't take critical view on these issues as they affect her economy and development, the document that she may sign at the Copenhagen summit could put a clog on the wheel of economic development in the country. Nobody should take the West's position on green technology for a ride. The industrial revolution started as a joke in Britain and overtook the whole world.
I am saying all this because the other day there were media reports that the Minister of Environment, Mr. Odey said, "Nigeria is to demand compensation for the effect of climate change on its people at the forthcoming Copenhagen conference". According to the report, Mr. Odey claimed that 180 million Africans would be rendered homeless by climate change in ten years time. He said, "Nigeria should seize the opportunity of the Copenhagen conference to urgently exert its political muscle in and out of the continent to insist not only that Africa must be compensated for the impacts of climate change and opportunity lost but also compensatory funds be channeled as a matter of emergency, directly to Africa through the African Development Bank".
Wao! What is the Minister up to? It is saddening judging from the Minister's declaration on what Nigeria's objective at the Copenhagen summit would be, that the country has not articulated her position based on economic realities and development agenda to argue at the summit. If Nigeria is going to Copenhagen to demand for compensation, I'm afraid the country would lose out completely. No compensation would definitely come from anywhere. What kind of compensation is the Minister talking about? Who will pay the compensation and to whom? How much compensation is he thinking about?
Is Nigeria going to demand for compensation for the country alone or for the entire African continent? If the former why Nigeria alone? And if the latter, does Nigeria have the mandate of Africa to demand compensation on behalf of the continent? The whole thing looks funny. Another thing, is Nigeria not a beneficiary of the products of industrial revolution that is thought to be the cause of climate change? Is Nigeria going to Copenhagen to blame the West for her backwardness? What lost opportunities are the Minister talking about? Nigeria should put her aces together and address her economic problems as other countries are doing. The Copenhagen summit would benefit countries that have done their homework while those that took it for another conference will lose.
The climate change debate is a contentious issue that is generating serious national debates in many countries. In developed countries, citizens are carrying placards to pressurise their leaders to protect their interest. But that is where you have enlightened populace that has understanding of what is going on. This is so because believe it or not, any framework protocol signed in Copenhagen would most likely direct the course of development and industrial production in the next one or two decades.
The expiring Kyoto Protocol signed in 1997, which expires in 2012 for the first time served as a global benchmark on how nations are permitted to do or not as far as industrial development is concerned. The forth-coming Copenhagen Protocol (COP-15) is going to produce stricter global industrial emission standards, which would be binding on all signatory countries. So far, Nigeria is signatory to the Kyoto Protocol and those preceding it. By signing the Copenhagen Protocol, wouldn't the country be signing its own death warrant as far as industrialization and development are concerned? Wouldn't the country be mortgaging her national and industrial development interests? This is my fear. On that basis, caution should be exercised before appending signatures on behalf of the country at Copenhagen.
Experience has shown that Nigeria's government officials that represent the country at international meetings merely append signatures on behalf of the country on highly technical documents without much understanding of the implications thereby committing the country to what she can't afford or what is against her national interest. The problem is that once a country is a signatory to any international protocol, she must abide by its provisions. The world is moving away from the traditional industrial development paradigm that largely depends on fossil fuels to a more environmentally friendly green technology. The 21st century is going to witness a shift from fossil fuel polluting industrial manufacturing plants to green technology that would guarantee minimal to zero emission. These are developments that would mark a new world order in a post-modern age. How soon this would come may be determined in Copenhagen.
The point is that Nigeria is the most populous black nation on earth but socially, economically and industrially undeveloped. On this basis, the Copenhagen summit presents a major challenge to the country. Should Nigeria sit back as passive participant at a conference that would determine how development would be carried out? While the summit presents a different challenge to the highly industrialised nations in trying to set emission standards, it is a different ball game for a country like Nigeria that has not witnessed development. Would Nigeria be able to cope with the limits that are going to be set at Copenhagen and still be able to meet her development needs? These are the issues those leading the country to Copenhagen should concern themselves with and not asking for frivolous compensation.
