Nigeria's Future And The Niger Delta
By Reuben Abati
That Nigeria's future is inextricably linked to what the governing authorities do or omit to do about the Niger Delta crisis, is not in doubt. But three recent developments underscore just how delicate and urgent the problem is, and how on a daily basis, the Nigerian government, the politicians, and the theorists of economic delusion continue to be confronted with the cost of their inaction. Leaders of the South South geopolitical zone and representatives of the North met on January 8, in Yenagoa, the Bayelsa state capital, and at the meeting, Niger Delta leaders were said to have requested for the "North's support on development." It is interesting to hear that Niger Delta leaders are pleading with Northern leaders to support the Niger Delta cause. Who should be begging the other for support?
At whose instance was the meeting summoned? There is a suspicious power game here that can be immediately exposed. Whenever the political North gets into trouble, or needs to do a dirty job, or needs help, its strategy has always been to look for allies in the South, and contrive a situation in which its myth of superior importance is upheld. On the Niger Delta Question, it makes sense to create the impression that it is the Niger Delta that is crying out for help, and asking the North to support it. That January 8 meeting in Yenagoa between the conqueror and the conquered does not quite reflect the present balance of power politics between the South South and the North or even, the Nigerian state. Nigeria needs to respond to the Niger Delta crisis in order to help itself. At the National Political Reform Conference convened by the Obasanjo government, the Northern delegation refused to support the demands of the South South. Why the sudden willingness to talk?
The Niger Delta was represented at what was called the inaugural summit of the South-South/Northern Union, by Chief Edwin Clark as leader of the South-South delegation, former Governor of Edo state, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, former Transport Minister, Alabo Tonye Graham-Douglas, former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Chibudom Nwuche, and former Secretary to the Bayelsa State Government, Dr Bolare Ketebu-Nwakeafor. The South South leaders were said to have drawn attention to the fact that a similar meeting in 2007, led to the emergence of a North/South-South Presidential ticket in the 2007 election.
Chief Edwin Clark then told the Northerners that it is pay-back time. He laid before them a ten-point demand which includes the urgent redress of the plight of youths of the region, strict adherence to the rule of law and accountability, meaningful review of the Constitution to create room for more states in the Niger Delta, establishment of a more efficient machinery for mutual consultation and collaboration among regions, implementation of the Ledum Mitee-led Presidential Technical Committee on oil-rich areas, and a quick resolution of the contentious issues of development in the Niger Delta. Chief Edwin Clark added: "The promise is that the Niger Delta matter will be fixed during the life of this administration. There will be genuine and sustainable development. Adequate compensation will be paid to those who are suffering the worst collateral damage from oil exploration activities; spills, pollution, environmental degradation, gas flaring and others. The agitated and angry youths would be rehabilitated, educated and gainfully employed. The other issues are equally important to the region as they affect mostly the poor, who paradoxically are formed largely by us from the South-South.
The gangs of poverty are severest in this zone of the country where the black gold is located...Yes, a Niger Delta Ministry has been created. But who has been brought to head it? Will the new leadership empathise sufficiently enough with the sufferings of the Niger Delta man to know what to do? Even the Ministry itself what budget has been given to it to operate with? What of the huge sums of money that are still being owed the NDDC? ... Commenting on the Ministry of Petroleum, the South South elders noted that "Our son who has been reporting directly to the President has now been down-graded to the rank of a junior minister who will now be reporting to another minister. In the current scheme of things, it is lamentable that the South-South zone is marginalised in the affairs and management of the NNPC, NLNG, PTDF, PPMC".
The North was represented by former Senate leader, Dr Abubakar Sola Saraki as leader of delegation, and others including Alhaji Shaaba Lafiaji, Alhaji Tanko Yakassi, Sir Patrick Adaba, Alhaji Idris Koko, and Kabiru Taminu Turaki. Dr Saraki told the South-Southerners: "We are here to join you in your effort to find lasting solution to the recurring crisis of youth restiveness, environmental degradation and lack of development which has engulfed the entire South-South and is threatening the socio-economic security and tourism activities of our great nation. As respected leaders of the region and Nigeria, we have come to plead with you to talk to your restive youths so that government can be given the enabling environment to address effectively the problems of the all important region. You will agree with us that if both the North and the South-South people should allow the situation in the region to spill out of control, and the government at the centre fails, we cannot absolve ourselves of blame. That means North and South have made sacrifices to keep the country together as one nation".
Saraki and co attended that summit under the banner of the Northern Union. Who do they speak for? Do they represent the interest of the Arewa Consultative Forum, and the Sultanate? Do they speak for the authors of the Nomadic Theory of Crude Oil Formation? Do they speak for those who have advised the President to appoint a Northerner as Minister of Petroleum, another Northerner as Acting Group Managing Director of the NNPC, and a moderate Niger Deltan as Minister of the Niger Delta? Who sponsored that meeting and whose interest was being served? Where was the Northern Union when a large crowd of agitators representing the Northern interest opposed the South South delegation at the National Political Reforms Conference? When Dr Saraki says the Niger Delta is all-important, who does he speak for?
Dialogue is important. I agree. South South leaders have been talking with Northern leaders since 1951. In the pursuit of his seven-point agenda, one of the first attempts by President UMYA was to introduce a summit, but that was immediately rejected by the same South-South leaders who are now talking to the Northern Union. Perhaps the strategy of dialogue ought to be re-evaluated. It is like this: who should be talking to who? The Northern Union is asking the South South leaders to talk to "their restive youths". I am not sure many South South leaders can talk to those youths. The restive youths of the Niger Delta, those hooded militants and the kidnappers have evolved a new language of the revolution that requires a different kind of engagement. If Northern leaders now want to talk, it is these restive youths that they may have to negotiate with directly. This is unfortunate but it is the price that the Nigerian state has to pay for failing, over time, to have a decent and respectable conversation on the Niger Delta.
Second, just how central those we have described as the "bastards of the revolution" have become to the Niger Delta Question was borne out in the course of the week by the bold declaration by the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) that its promised ceasefire has now ended, and that it will launch a fresh offensive against all oil installations in the Niger Delta. This is in response to the continued application of the military solution in the region. One of the militants, Angolia (a.k.a. Boy Chiki) was reportedly killed by the Joint Task Force. JTF insists that Angolia was trying to escape from custody and he got shot in the process. MEND is braying for blood. South South leaders, the ones who sit in air-conditioned halls to hold meetings with Northern and UMYA representatives have no control over those boys. We have to get this straight.
If UMYA and the state do not know this, they are at least being forced to address the effects. Budget 2009 has practically failed for example even before it is passed into law, and there is a Niger Delta dimension to its dying-aborning. The Budget predictably is dependent on oil revenue, and it is pegged at $45 dollars per barrel, and a production rate of over two million barrels per day. Spot price of crude oil is down to $35, throwing the budget overboard. The violence in the Niger Delta makes it impossible to attain the 2 million barrels plus production target. The global credit crunch has resulted in a local cash-squeeze that has forced the Central Bank to devalue the Naira, but in an import-dependent economy, this has only led to worse inflationary push and pull. In desperation, the Central Bank has moved the foreign exchange market from a Wholesale Dutch Auction System to a Retail Dutch Auction system, but the speculators in the system have always proven to be smarter than the Nigerian government because the biggest speculators are Nigeria's policy makers, sabotaging all of us from within. Many Western countries have officially declared that their economies are in recession. When the global financial meltdown began, Nigerian authorities boasted that Nigeria was not affected; they told us that the reforms in the banking and insurance sectors and the privatisation programme had anticipated the global crisis and so, Nigerians should rejoice. But by January 14, 2009, the Nigerian government was already eating its words. The Nigerian economy is not just in recession, it faces in 2009, the prospect of complete collapse. If the crisis bites harder and the country's foreign reserves are eroded, the country will lose credit ratings and Nigeria will be in a colossal mess.
UMYA and his advisers know. So they have quickly put together a new national Economic Management Team. But there is no note of urgency in the team's assignment. It sounds like an inner cabinet, with the President as Chairman, which can also take its time to address the broad-ranging issues that have been outlined. We simply don't have the luxury of time. Besides, the new economic team looks too much like an establishment conclave. The composition is an issue. Apart from Bismarck Rewane and Babatunde Fashola, who are capable of original ideas and revolutionary thinking, all the others may find it difficult to think out of the box for one reason or the other. To fix the Nigerian economy in the short and long terms, UMYA needs to embark on a revolution. And this certainly is not the time to go on leave as has been reported.
The big challenge is to make this country a productive economy. An import-dependent economy that is devaluing its currency, where is the demand for the Naira? Even our crude oil is dollar-denominated. There is a greater demand for the dollar than the Naira. And yet in the face of the impossible character of the Nigerian economy, some groups within the polity, including the South-South leaders are asking for the creation of more states. Most of the existing states are unviable because they are centres of consumption of federal revenue, 90 per cent of which comes from the sale of crude oil. With the continuing crisis in the Delta and the scenario painted earlier, existing states will have a difficult time surviving. Creating new states cannot be a priority at this time. Making existing ones productive is. And the best way to start is to return to that old message about the need to diversify the Nigerian economy and its revenue base. Sadly, the only form of diversification that appeals to governments at all levels is to impose more taxes on the people. That can only lead to trouble. Already, the NLC is demanding a minimum wage of N52, 000, and the federal lawmakers are quarrelling over a N30, 000 proposal. At the moment, the national minimum wage is N7, 500. There is trouble ahead. And UMYA is unprepared.
The Niger Delta Question must be addressed but ultimately, this must be in the context of the Nigerian question. In the short and long term, states and local councils must be weaned off their dependence on oil revenue. There is an on-going legal tussle over excess crude revenue, fortunately in 1999 and with the global credit crunch, there will be no excess oil revenue to fight over. The main lesson of the global credit crunch and the fluctuations in oil prices is the fact of Nigeria's vulnerability, stoutly denied a few months ago, but now openly admitted. The sad news is that rather than plan ahead, governments in the South West are busy fighting over who is an Afenifere and who is not and who should be a Yoruba leader? In the East, there is a big tussle over leadership as well, and in the North, let Allah's will be done. Where will Nigeria be at the end of 2009? There is no hope that the Niger Delta matter will be fixed during the life of this administration.
