Mobile industry to add one billion new unique subscribers in four years

GOING by latest intelligence from the Global System for Mobile Telecommunications Association (GSMA), by 2020, almost three-quarters of the world’s population will be connected to a mobile network.

The new study indicated that an additional one billion people will become mobile subscribers over the next five years, bringing the total to 5.6 billion – equivalent to 72 per cent of the expected global population.

However, unique subscriber growth is expected to slow down over this period compared to previous years as many markets approach saturation point, highlighting the need for mobile operators to unlock new growth opportunities in areas such as 5G, M2M and the Internet of Things.

The new GSMA Intelligence report released on Monday at the on-going Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain, with the title: ‘Moving beyond subscriber growth: Emerging opportunities as mobile adoption approaches saturation’, highlights detailed global subscriber trends and growth forecasts across the world.

Chief Strategy Officer at the GSMA, Hyunmi Yang, said over the next five years a further one billion people will take advantage of the social and economic opportunities made possible by mobile connectivity, “but we are now entering a new era that presents mobile operators with fresh opportunities and challenges. “We are already seeing operators in highly penetrated developed markets seeking to offset slowing unique subscriber growth by evolving and broadening business models and investing in new network technologies, services and digital ecosystems. As new services continue to develop on mobile platforms, operators worldwide must ensure that they capitalise on the opportunities presented by the vast and growing ecosystem that nearly universal global mobile connectivity has created.”

GSMA Intelligence calculated that there were 4.7 billion unique mobile subscribers worldwide at the end of 2015, equivalent to 63 per cent of the global population. The industry has benefited from rapid subscriber growth over the last five years, adding 1.4 billion new subscribers between 2010 and 2015. But many economically developed regions, notably Europe and the developed markets of Asia Pacific (e.g. South Korea, Japan, Australia) have already reached extremely high levels of mobile penetration and are now at the point where future subscriber growth opportunities are limited. This means that the vast majority of the expected one billion new subscribers over the next five years will come from developing world markets.

The world’s two largest mobile markets, China and India, are forecast to account for 45 per cent of the subscriber increase over the next five years. However, by 2020, many large developing markets that have been the main engines of recent subscriber growth – notably China and Brazil – could also be approaching saturation point. Moreover, the subscriber growth opportunities that will exist over this period will largely involve connecting mainly rural, low-income populations, which may require collaboration between operators, governments and other ecosystem players to overcome the significant social and economic challenges in serving these communities.

GSMA Intelligence calculated unique mobile subscribers based on the number of active SIMs used by an individual, who can account for multiple mobile connections.