Global oil demand to hit 110 mbpd by 2040

Nigeria cuts export of Bonny light crude in February
THE Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has estimated that global oil demand would hit 110 million barrels per day (mbpd) by 2040.

Also, the cartel said about $10 trillion, (in 2014 prices), is required as oil-related investment needed to cover future demand for oil at the global level between 2015 and 2040.

Meanwhile, indication has emerged that Nigeria would export about 166,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Bonny Light crude oil in February, down from the 218,000 bpd initially planned for January.

This is coming as the crude oil prices of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ 12 basket crude prices stood at $31.63 per barrel.

However, plans are the advanced stage by the cartel to lunch the 2015World Oil Outlook (WOO) today, which is expected to project the future trend of demand and supply of products across the next 25 years.

The WOO, which projected the investment figure, offers a thorough review and assessment of various scenarios related to the medium- and long-term development of the upstream and downstream sectors of the oil industry.

In this year’s WOO, the organisation also projected that oil demand would hit 110 mbpd by 2040, with the global energy demand set to increase by almost 50 per cent in the period to 2040, even as the overall energy mix continuing to be led by fossil fuels at almost 78 per cent.

Also, the combined, oil and gas are expected to supply around 53 per cent of the global energy demand by 2040, while the medium-term oil demand is revised upward, rising above 97 million barrels a day (mbpd) by 2020;

Long-term demand is dominated by the developing Asia region, which accounts for 70 per cent of the increase by 2040, while non-OPEC liquids supply will increase from 56.5 mbpd in 2014 to around 60 mbpd in 2020, a downward revision of 1 mb/d compared to the WOO 2014.

By 2040, the report expected that non-OPEC liquids supply will fall below 60 mbpd.

OPEC crude is therefore expected to expand by 10 mbpd to a level of 40.7 mbpd by 2040, an increase of 1 mb/d compared with last year’s publication;

The long-term value of the OPEC reference basket is assumed to rise from more than $70 per barrel in 2020 to $95 per barrel by 2040 (both in 2014 dollars).

The cartel said it is important to stress, however, that the assumed prices do not represent a price forecast or a desired price path. They are a working assumption for the reference case scenario;

A review of existing refinery projects indicates that around 7 mbpd of new distillation capacity will be added globally in the period 2015–2020;

Surplus refining capacity in the medium-term has eased over the past year; but the outlook continues to point to a period of competition for product markets and the need for additional closures remains.