Race for next guber poll begins in Edo

ALTHOUGH the governorship election in Edo State is due to hold next year, preparations are in top gear and political parties are already rolling out directives to the various aspirants jostling to succeed Governor Adams Oshiomhole.

The All Progressive Congress (APC) speaking through its State Chairman, Anselm Ojezua warned the aspirants not to build any structure that would create factions and urged them to rely on the structure already built by the party to further their ambitions.

On the part of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the party is yet to come out with modalities but its leadership led by Dan Orbih recently said it was already preparing to field a credible candidate that would defeat the APC.

Certain factors like zoning and ethnic consideration and influence of traditional institutions particularly the Benin monarch; the governor and some opinion leaders may however affect the choice of the candidate of the parties especially the APC.

Incumbent governor Oshiomhole who is from Edo North, the second most populated of the three senatorial zones and who got into office through massive support from Edo South (Binis) and their monarch is expected to lend his support for a Bini candidate even though some of his party’s aspirants like former governor Oserheimen Osunbor and Ken Imansuagbon are not from the area.

The aspirants from Bini in the APC include Deputy Governor Pius Odubu, former Chief of Staff and current Commissioner for Works, Osarodion Ogie, former Minister of State for Works, Chris Ogienmwonyi, the PDP gubernatorial candidate in 2012, Charles Airhiavbere a retired army officer.

For the PDP, it is not clear which senatorial zone it would cede its ticket but the race is also dominated by the Binis except former Minister of Works, Mike Onolemenen who is from Edo Central (Esan) just like Osunbor and Imansuagbon.

Other PDP aspirants are Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, Solomon Edebiri, Senator Ehigie Uzamere and Matthew Iduoriyekemwen.   There is also a popular Benin musician, Ambassador Nowamangbe who aspires to contest under the Citizens Popular Party (CPP) even though the contest is perceived to be between the APC and the PDP.

The APC aspirants are following party directives not to distract the government but they are also reading the body language of the governor to decode who his preferred candidate would be which many believe would be influenced by two factors, the governor’s influential mother, Hajia Aishetu and the Benin Palace.

But for the victory of the APC in the presidential election, the intensity of jostling to succeed Oshiomhole from his party would have been less because the bandwagon effect of the PDP performance in the National Assembly elections where it won two of the three senatorial seats and shared the 10 House of Representatives seats equally with the APC.

The PDP had hoped to use the expected victory as a launch pad to take over the House of Assembly banking on expected band wagon effect and thereafter begin an impeachment process against Oshiomhole.

However, that was not to be as the APC victory in the presidential election changed the tide that eventually led to the party winning an overwhelming majority in the state legislature to the extent that it won for the first time two out of the five seats in Edo Central.

There had been huge victory preparations by the PDP over field reports of victory for its lawmakers but was cut short when the party eventually lost the presidential election to the APC.

In-fact one of the aspirants of the APC who was then with the PDP, was already boasting that “we have dealt with them and Oshiomhole will be disgraced when we are finished with him” until reports from the field showed otherwise. He was quick to cross over to the APC.

However, two time governor of old Bendel State, Dr Samuel Ogbemudia said he would play a vital role in shopping for the next governor at the launch of his Edo Mass Movement (EMM) on July 4 which he said will be used to search for Oshiomhole’s successor.

He however said a search committee would be inaugurated that would comprise of people from the three senatorial districts but sent a signal that he would personally love an Edo South person (Benin) to emerge.

This position of Ogbemudia came few days after former governor; Lucky Igbinedion said he would play a role in determining who the PDP fields adding that the person must be a founding member of the party. People have interpreted to mean that he would be supporting Ize-Iyamu who was his SSG and Chief of Staff on whose birthday he spoke.

First to defect to the APC was Airhiavbere who contested Oshiomhole’s academic records and electoral victory even against his party’s decision. He was publicly received and has subsequently accompanied the governor on a “Thank you” parade round Benin City after the presidential election. He was followed by Osunbor and Imansuagbon.

Analyst believe that if Oshiomhole had thought that the exit of Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu who is believed to have had an over-bearing presence in the system and also interested in the race to the PDP gave him a sigh of relief, the coming of Airhiavbere, Osunbor and Imansuagbon may have created a new challenge on who gets the APC ticket by increasing the number of aspirants.

Supporters of the APC aspirants believe that their principals have chances of clinching the ticket. Odubu for instance is believed to be one of the most loyal Deputy Governors in the country.

There is no recorded disagreement between him and Oshiomhole since they came to power on November 12, 2008 and he has never been known to have complained either privately or publicly since they came to power.

He is also believed to have the backing of the Crown Prince to Benin Kingdom, Ambassador Eheneden Erediauwa who has stated in different fora that Oshiomhole would have to reward his loyal Deputy with the ticket.

Odubu is said to have friends across political divide in the state and beyond having been a member of the House of Representatives for eight years. The governor’s first dilemma would be choosing between his Deputy and his former Chief of Staff, Ogie who started as Secretary, Oshiomhole Campaign Organisation ahead of the 2007 governorship election and then became the Chief of Staff and now a commissioner.

Ogie is seen as another loyal aide who is highly respected in many parts of Benin City where he has carved a niche for himself and beyond as the governor’s eye. He is also believed to be very close to former Chief of Army Staff, Lt. General Theophilus Danjuma through his wife, Daisy and her siblings.

There is also the factor of Ogiemwonyi who has suddenly warmed himself into the hearts of the governor and very close to the palace. He is seen as a technocrat who has been very visible in APC activities since he joined the party last year. He recently chaired the launch of a book in honour of Oshiomhole’s mother.

Imansuagbon is very popular among the people and students with his yearly free distribution of rice and essay competition for secondary schools. A group of sons and daughters of Edo Central, “Esan Patriots” in Europe has already thrown their weight behind him to contest the next poll.

Speaking on behalf of the Europe group, its president, Francis Okoemu said, “We are grateful for the ‘unparalleled development’ Governor Adams Oshiomhole has brought to Edo State, and the only credible and trustworthy person to continue from where Oshiomhole will stop is Imansuangbon.

Edo South and North senatorial districts have had their turns of eight years; it is now the turn of Esan land.   He described Imansuangbon as an illustrious son of Esan land in particular and Edo state in general, who believes in justice, fairness and equity.

He urged Governor Adams Oshiomhole and the good people of Edo State to support the Esan to produce the next state governor and Imansuagbon recently expressed confidence that the people of Edo North and the Binis of Edo South would support his ambition..

Osunbor, who is from Edo Central is believed to be interested in the governorship election because of the agitation of the people of the zone that it is their turn to produce the next governor for the state.  Part of the agitation was that Osunbor only served for 18 months in office between 2007- 2008, when election Tribunal declared his election invalid.

The former governor had disclosed that he had been under pressure from friends and associates to contest the 2016 governorship elections. He was received into the APC by the incumbent.

With the support Osiomhole got from the Benin monarch it would be difficult to wish away the interest of the palace on who succeeds him and the governor is believed to have cut his radicalism, activism and political participation from his mother who became his role model after his father’s death.

And with the role she has played, it will be difficult for the governor not to also be influenced by his mother on who she prefers and even if the governor would go against her wish, it would a herculean task doing that.     Observer and analysts are watching to see where the pendulum swings at the end of the day.